SectoralDecompositionofChina’sCO2EmissionGrowthDrivers： An Analysis Based on Input-output Model of Non-competitive Imports
Ji Junping，Hu Guangxiao and Ma Xiaoming

摘要：識別中國碳排放增長的關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動因素及關(guān)鍵部門對于科學(xué)地制定碳減排方案、 盡早實現(xiàn)碳排放峰值目標(biāo)具有重要指導(dǎo)意義。本文擴展了分部門的結(jié)構(gòu)分解分析法， 基于非競爭進口型投入產(chǎn)出模型研究了中國生產(chǎn)部門碳排放增長的關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動因素及部門。結(jié)果表明， 最終需求規(guī)模是唯一的碳排放增長因素， 固定資本形成總額、 出口及城鎮(zhèn)居民消費是碳排放增長的主要需求類型， 而建筑業(yè)以及各類設(shè)備制造業(yè)是需求規(guī)模增長的主要部門； 碳排放強度是主要的碳排放減緩因素， 但與其他時期相比該因素引起的減排量較小， 電力業(yè)碳排放強度不降反升是其主要原因； 投入產(chǎn)出結(jié)構(gòu)在2007年至2012年首次成為主要的減排因素， 主要得益于電力業(yè)及建筑業(yè)投入產(chǎn)出結(jié)構(gòu)的大幅優(yōu)化。為使中國盡早實現(xiàn)減排目標(biāo)， 建議控制建筑業(yè)固定資本形成總額的過快增長， 以提高發(fā)電效率、 優(yōu)化發(fā)電結(jié)構(gòu)為抓手降低各部門碳排放強度， 推動各生產(chǎn)部門提高投入產(chǎn)出效率。

關(guān)鍵詞：環(huán)境投入產(chǎn)出分析；結(jié)構(gòu)分解分析；部門分解；二氧化碳排放

Abstract：Identifying the main drivers and sectors of China's CO2 emission growth is of great significance to develop mitigation plans and to achieve China's emissions peak target. In this paper, we investigate the primary drivers and sectors for China's production-emission growth based on an input-output model of non-competitive imports and a sector-based method of structural decomposition analysis. The results show that final demand level, dominated by gross fixed capital formation, exports, and urban household consumption, is the only emission-growth driver. Construction and manufacturing sectors contribute the most of the demand-driven emissions. CO2 emission intensity remains the top mitigation driver. However, its emission reduction is much lower than reductions in other phases, because of the increase in the emission intensity of power sector. Input-output structure emerges as the second major driver for emission reduction from 2007 to 2012. The main reason is the optimization of the supply chain of construction and electricity production in this period. To help China achieve mitigation goals, we suggest that China should curb over-construction of gross fixed capital formation, decrease the emission intensities of production sectors by improving the efficiency, and optimizing the structure of power generation and increase productivity. 

Keywords：Environmentally Extended Input-output Analysis; Structural Decomposition Analysis; Sectoral Decomposition; CO2 Emissions

全文：基于非競爭進口型投入產(chǎn)出模型的中國碳排放增長因素部門分解研究.pdf

DOI：10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2016.01.004