The Effect and Mechanism of Digital Economy on Carbon Emissions in Chinese Cities
Sun Wenyuan, Zhou Haoping
摘要：“雙碳”目標下，如何促進節能降碳成為當前中國亟須解決的重大問題，數字經濟發展在促進經濟高質量發展的同時，也會對碳排放量產生影響。鑒于此，本文以中國260個地級市為研究對象，通過構建面板數據模型，實證考察了數字經濟對碳排放的影響。研究結果顯示：首先，數字經濟對碳排放的作用效應為非線性的倒U型關系，這一結論在進行一系列穩健性檢驗后仍然成立；其次，機制分析發現，地方政府競爭是數字經濟影響碳排放的重要機制，數字經濟可通過地方政府競爭的間接效應抑制碳排放；最后，異質性分析結果表明，數字經濟對碳排放的影響會因區域經濟發展水平的不同、城市能源豐裕程度的不同、城市創新水平的不同而產生差異，其中經濟發達地區、能源豐裕度低的城市以及高創新投入城市，數字經濟對碳排放的影響更為顯著。因此，政府應加快新型數字基礎設施建設步伐，為數字經濟發揮減碳效應提供有力支撐；同時，應進一步優化政績考核評價體系，為我國低碳發展增添動力。
關鍵詞：數字經濟；碳排放；地方政府競爭
Abstract: Under the double carbon target, how to promote energy saving and carbon reduction has become a major issue that needs to be addressed urgently in China at present, and the development of digital economy will have an impact on China's carbon emissions while promoting high-quality economic development. In view of this, the impact of digital economy on carbon emissions is empirically investigated by constructing a panel data model with 260 prefecture-level cities in China as the research object. The findings show that, firstly, the effect of digital economy on carbon emissions is a nonlinear inverted U-shaped relationship, and this finding still holds after a series of robustness tests. Secondly, the mechanism analysis finds that local government competition is an important mechanism through which the digital economy affects carbon emissions, and the digital economy can suppress carbon emissions through the indirect effect of local government competition. Finally, the results of heterogeneity analysis show that the impact of digital economy on carbon emissions will be differentiated by the different levels of regional economic development, the different levels of energy abundance in cities, and the different levels of innovation in cities, among which the impact of digital economy on carbon emissions is more significant in economically developed regions, cities with low energy abundance, and cities with high innovation input. Therefore, the government should accelerate the pace of new digital infrastructure construction to provide strong support for the effect of the digital economy on carbon emissions. At the same time, it should further optimize the performance evaluation system to add momentum to China's low-carbon development.
Keywords: Digital Economy；Carbon Emissions；Government Competition
基金項目：國家社科基金一般項目“人工智能對就業的影響機制與對策研究”（20BJL144）和江蘇省研究生實踐創新計劃項目“人工智能技術發展對就業影響研究”（SJCX22_0913）的階段性成果。
