The Research of Provincial Trade-embodied Carbon Emission in China
Tang Weiqi，Zhou Yi and Sun Kege
摘要：中國區域經濟發展模式存在差異性， 而目前節能減排目標的設定缺乏對區域間差異的考慮， 無法實現節能減排的效率性和公平性。因此有必要分析不同經濟發展模式的地區貿易隱含碳調入、 調出量及其影響因素， 為制定體現地區間公平性且有效率的碳減排政策提供依據。本文通過多區域投入-產出模型估算我國各省 （市）貿易隱含碳流量， 并通過結構分解分析法 （SDA） 將其影響因素分解為規模效應、 技術效應和結構效應。結果表明， 重工業密集型地區和加工貿易密集型地區碳排放調入、調出均高于其他地區， 并且基本均為隱含碳凈調出地。在過去一段時間， 我國貿易隱含碳凈調出地趨向于少數幾個重工業密集型省市和加工貿易密集型省市。在重工業密集型地區和加工貿易密集型地區， 規模效應均對貿易隱含碳排放產生顯著的正向影響， 而在加工貿易密集型地區則存在較大的技術效應， 其對貿易隱含碳排放有較大的負面作用。在短期內， 可以通過技術改進降低這些地區的貿易隱含碳調出， 但在長期內需要通過產業結構優化升級實現低碳貿易發展。
關鍵詞：投入產出模型；結構分解分析；中國省際貿易隱含碳
Abstract:Provinces in China have different economic development modes.However,the decision of carbon emission reduction target does not take the regional difference into consideration,thus leading to inefficiency and inequality.It is necessary to analyze the trade-embodied carbon emission inflow and outflow,as well as the factors that influence it.So that it could provide suggestions to make equal and efficient emission reduction policies for different regions.Thispa⁃ per estimates the carbon emission embodied in the trade flow among provinces in China through an Input-output Model, The impact of scale effect,technological effect and structural effect is estimated through the Structural Decomposition Analysis model.Results show that the Heavy-Industry-Intensive Provinces and Processing-Trade-Industry-Intensive Provinces in China are net out-flowers of trade-embodied carbon emission,with higher level of trade-embodied carbon emission outflow and inflow than other provinces.In recent years,several HIIPs and PTIIPs in China tend to be the main net out-flowers of trade-embodied carbon emission.The scale effect have significant and positive impact on trade-embodied carbon emission for both HIIPs and PTIIPs,while the impact of technology effect on PTIIPs is larger than that on HIIPs.In the short run,technology improvement is vital for trade-embodied emission reduction.However, low-carbon trade development in these regions should be achieved through industry structure adjustment and upgrad⁃ ing.
Keywords:Input-output Model;Structural Decomposition Analysis;Trade-embodied Carbon Emission among Provinces in China
DOI：10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2016.01.003
